Analyst Lays Out Way for Vikings to Keep Sam Darnold in 2025

Before the 2024 NFL season, the Minnesota Vikings signed quarterback Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract. The Vikings expected that Darnold would bridge them to their future franchise quarterback, rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. But before the start of the season, McCarthy went down with a knee injury in the preseason and missed the entire season. Under Darnold, the Vikings have flourished, with a 12-2 record and seven-game winning streak, positioning them as strong contenders for the NFC North title and a potential first-round playoff bye.

Darnold’s performance has sparked talks about keeping him beyond the 2024 season, which may delay McCarthy’s ascension. According to NFL insider Albert Breer, the Vikings may even opt for the franchise tag for Darnold on their way to the 2025 season, citing an example of the 2005 San Diego Chargers that franchised Drew Brees to delay Philip Rivers. 

The franchise tag would mean a cost of more than $40 million for the Vikings to keep Darnold in their fold, considering the player was initially taken in as a short-term measure. While Minnesota has the space to do this, it would ultimately depend on their desire to spend significant money on Darnold, particularly when considering McCarthy is probably their quarterback of the future.

Darnold’s value to the market makes him an added complication to Minnesota’s quarterback situation. His resurgence has likely increased his worth, with projections suggesting he could command a contract averaging at least $25 million per year in free agency. 

Darnold is expected to be selective in his next career move, prioritizing a favorable situation to avoid repeating the struggles he faced earlier in his career with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. This selectivity may, however influence the dynamics of negotiating contracts, as Darnold would weigh his commitment to the Vikings against that investment the Vikings make with McCarthy.

Many considerations, including the performances Darnold shows in the games remaining in the season, will shape the decision for the Vikings. The stronger the postseason run is for the team or a potential Super Bowl appearance could keep Darnold within the Vikings organization. Otherwise, any regression might spur the Vikings to continue along with the intended plan to transition the ball to McCarthy.

And they would have to consider the even broader implications of the choice of quarterback on team dynamic and future planning. Hanging onto Darnold for another season or two can give McCarthy more time behind the center to develop the way the Green Bay Packers did with Jordan Love – who sat for three full seasons learning behind Aaron Rodgers and helped him become better prepared in his eventual role as quarterback. However, it also exposes the team to uncertainty or discontent if McCarthy feels that his career advancement is being delayed for too long.

Financially, the Vikings are expected to have around $76.7 million in cap space for the 2025 season, which gives them room to make major decisions on their roster. However, committing more than half of that amount to one player, especially at quarterback, is a serious decision that needs to be weighed against the rest of the team’s needs and long-term plan. The front office will need to weigh the short-term gains of keeping Darnold against the potential opportunity costs, including the chance to improve other parts of the roster.

Conclusion

The Vikings have a complex decision ahead of them with regards to their quarterback situation for the 2025 season. Sam Darnold’s surprising success has created an opportunity to extend his time with the team, perhaps offering stability and continued elite play. However, this has to be balanced with the financial considerations, the growth curve of J.J. McCarthy, and the overall strategic direction of the franchise. The next few weeks and the results of the Vikings’ playoff efforts will be crucial in determining this crucial decision.